Reading the tea leaves about whether the Harper government lives for another day or the coalition government comes to life is based on inferences and best guesses.
I liked that Iggy reminded Canadians that elected parliamentarians will be making those decisions and not based on public opinion. Also, his public statements appeared honourable. I thus felt better towards his leadership in the coalition and reduced my fears that the Liberals would play political games within their political partnership. H/T to
CuriosityCatAs we well know, public opinion is often fueled by misinformation and political partisan games.
That said, another opinion poll is showing more favourism towards the coalition. This is interesting in itself.
There has been a full court press against the coalition government by conservative partisan and their media supporting cheerleaders. Since January, and particularly this week, it has been a full court press - articles in their media friendly newspapers, and doing the rant, I mean talk show circuit. It has been relentless.
Meanwhile, the coalition for change folks have been very low key - no rallies, no roadshows, no big positive articles
AND YETA Strategic Counsel, which conducted a poll from Jan. 12-14 for The Globe and Mail and CTV News, provided this tidbits of information:
Although the Tories still lead the Liberals in voter intention – 36 to 29 – this gap has shrunk considerably since the initial coalition announcement. At that time, the Tories had a 21-percentage-point lead over the Liberals.
This I put down to a change in Liberal leadership and more importantly, the Harper governments very poor performance on the economy, bringing the country towards a unity crisis for partisan gain, proroguing parliament because he didn't want to face a vote of non-confidence, and appointing 18 new very partisan senators (when he said that he would not and went against his own party policy).
As we all well know, when someone is hanging themselves, the best thing to do, is stand back and give them lots of rope.
What this poll also indicated is that the liberal leader is
closing the gap with the Tories on the issue of who is best to deal with the economy, with 38 per cent picking them as best managers, compared with 40 per cent for the Tories. The Tories held a 12-point edge in the area in a poll taken during the 2008 election.
Considering that the accuracy of the polling data is within
3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, means that there is
no differences between 38 & 40 numbers.
Which now brings me to the next set of numbers in the poll which deal with giving the Harper government a break, going to an election, or giving the coalition government a chance to govern.
First, holding their noses and the liberals voting for the Harper budget. Beyond the optics of the Liberals, again, propping up the Harper govt, and essentially saying by default that liberals think that Harper and the conservatives are better able to manage the economy, it plays into Harper's hands, as it leaves him in control of the dominant political message and agenda (
can you trust him???), and gives him ample time to start defining Iggy negatively. There are other many good reasons why this isn't the smartest move by the liberals but most know these and have been mentioned numerous places. So I won't.
Now back to those polling numbers. The poll found 49 per cent said the Liberals should hold their noses and vote for the government even if they are not satisfied with the budget. Forty-three per cent, however, advised the Liberals to bring down the government if they don't like what they see.
Considering the 3.1 per cent accuracy of the poll, again the 49 & 43 per cent numbers become a
washout, in other words and statistically speaking, it has
little statistical significance. Here's why: by adding and/or subtracting 3.1 into both these numbers means that Canadians are basically
evenly divided on liberals supporting or not supporting the budget.
Second, going to an election or governing by coalition (outside of delaying spending on what Canadians say is the most pressing issue - the economy - by 61%, and moreover wasting a whole whack of money to the tune of 400 million that could be better spent on economic stimulus), the numbers are also a wash if one considers polling accuracy of 3.1 per cent.
Of those surveyed, 49 per cent said they would prefer an election over a coalition government if the budget failed and the government was defeated. However, 44 per cent preferred a Liberal-NDP coalition government, with 66 per cent of Quebeckers liking the idea.
Taking in the 3.1 accuracy brings 49 & 44 per cent to showing
NO statistical significance (46 & 47 respectfully). And those Quebec numbers still showing
great stat. significance (46 & 69 respectfully).
Also, the poll saw
no change for the NDP, at 18 per cent. In Quebec, the Liberals surged well ahead of the Tories, with 29 per cent, compared with 17 per cent. The Bloc continued to lead in Quebec with 36 per cent. Thus, both the NDP and Bloc brand remained solid.
Even though the pollster alluded that the 2nd choice of 43 per cent of NDP voters, if an election was held, would opt for the liberals over 23 per cent for the Tories,
this has always been true. This is not new news. As mentioned the NDP support remains solid since the last election, so the chance of NDP voter shift, particularly if the Liberals election message moves to the right, is not indicated in this poll. Ditto for Bloc voters.
Liberals could vie for the conservative vote (as that shift is already noted), thus moving their policies to the right of centre, but that risks, as mentioned above, losing their progressive liberal voters. Hmmm, what to do????
Thus, considering the statistical INsignificance of the polling data, as well as the financial cost of an election, and political optics, all around the Liberals are better off voting down the budget and going for a coalition government.
“Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself” Franklin D. Roosevelt