Flanagan writing on, what
DAN LEGER calls the
Tory-
Liberal coalition in all but name, gives his analysis:
Michael Ignatieff, a prize-winning novelist, scripted an exit from the coalition designed to make the Liberal Leader look powerful. But in fact, his position is relatively weak.
WHY, PRAY TELL:In the end, he had to imitate Stéphane Dion - denounce the Conservatives' budget but let it pass - and, like Mr. Dion, he may have to do it again and again. Stephen Harper, having gotten his budget through, can be sure of getting an election from the Governor-General if he wants one, so he can afford to attach confidence to important pieces of legislation without worrying that a defeat will put the opposition in power without an election. Mr. Ignatieff can try to look imperious, but he can't escape the objective weakness of his party.
So Iggy and the Liberals will be
"doin' the Dion." 'Nuff said . There will be no whining from the Libs and their supporters will now have to stand by their man Harper! Ruff.
Flannagan provides some ideas for Harper:As he sees, Harper has to shore up his base. So.....
He could start, for example, with the criminal-justice measures from the party's platform in the 2008 election. Why not make these a matter of confidence and run them straight at the Liberals? Will Mr. Ignatieff force an election on behalf of criminals? I don't think so.
Meanwhile,
Hill Times says
PM Harper's Conservatives agree: it's an election budget.
"The focus of this budget is not on setting Canada on the road to recovery. Rather, the principal goal appears to be ensuring a Conservative victory at the next election," wrote National Post columnist John Ivison in his column last week....
NO SURPRISE THERE:The
Pundit tells us that "
Conservatives raise[d] a record $21.2 million in 2008." The Conservatives beat there personal best, but this little gem was also revealed:
The NDP also scored a personal best of $5.5M just behind the Liberals, who at $5.9M managed to improve on their 2007 performance of $4.5M, but were still down from their 2006 showing of $9-9.8M (see below for some notes on the data).
No small accomplishment for the 4th placed party who also,
the pundit reminded us, showed
The New Democratic Party obtained 37 seats + 67 second-place finishes in the 308 ridings it contested (its largest share of seats-plus-seconds in this database). Its candidates obtained the 10% or better vote share required to become eligible for election expense rebates in 244/308 ridings. Nationally its percentage of the vote increased by 0.7%, and its share of the vote increased in more ridings than it declined (176 vs. 132).
Make no mistake, the NDP might have missed its goal of overcoming its party standing, but through funds raised and actual votes, the NDP solidified its supporter base for the progressive NDP brand.
So Harper has the bucks for the next election, and he see's this as an election budget. The NDP has the bucks, but the Liberals, not so much, according to speculation by the
pundit and articles like
this.
The last thing Harper wants is a Liberal-NDP coalition coming to power and getting the "media" and gaining "brand recognition" and thus support. By Iggy and libs supporting Harper and the cons "election budget", Iggy has ensured the GG will call an election over a defeat in the House of a confidence matter - exactly the position Harper wants. Way to go libs!
So the Harperites goal is to sink the liberal party's ability to "raise money" and cut off their tap to money. I wonder how he could strategically do that.
Maybe that hidden strategy is in this political tidbit.
Flanagan suggests
NDP Leader Jack Layton has interesting choices to make. He lost a lot when the coalition broke up, but he gained new room to manoeuvre. With Mr. Ignatieff repositioning the Liberals closer to the centre, the NDP can renew its play for left-wing voters who balance between the two parties. In fact, the party has done just that by starting a radio ad campaign attacking Mr. Ignatieff for "propping up Stephen Harper."
Beyond attacking the Liberals' left flank, Mr. Layton may reconsider his pout against Stephen Harper (as Palmerston said, "no perpetual enemies"). As the leader of a party standing at 14 per cent in the polls (well some), Mr. Layton can't realistically refuse to deal with the leaders of both major parties. It would be in his interest to look for points of agreement with Mr. Harper to achieve some legislative victories, thus strengthening his new claim to be the "NDP Opposition."
Hmm, I wonder what points of agreement there could be. Oh well, I will let us all ponder with $$$ dancing in our heads.
MEANWHILE
I'm sure Mercer will come out with Liberals abstain - redux - YOU KNOW,
doin' the Dion.
And the beat goes on.